Rains stave off further cattle sell downs

Recent rains in Northern Queensland have helped prevent further cattle turnoffs at a time where the national herd numbers are decreasing, according to ANZ’s latest Agri Commodity Report.

Courteney Kemp, ANZ Associate Director of Agribusiness Research, said: “While Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought disruption to the Queensland cattle market and southern producers battle dry conditions, the rainfall experienced in Northern Queensland has helped many producers retain stock they would have otherwise turned off.

“Ongoing export opportunities, combined with solid production levels, should see herd numbers come down in coming years, as the industry appears to have reached its peak herd numbers for the moment.”

The ANZ Autumn 25 Commodity Insights report indicates that beef slaughter data suggests the national herd has entered liquidation, with the female slaughter ratio hitting 52.2 per cent for 2024. 

However, the general sentiment is that the female slaughter rate has been inflated by a maturing herd profile, as opposed to any intentional significant destocking activity.

Saleyard prices remain solid, and while feeder and lighter stock are expected to enter the market, overall prices should remain steady over the coming months as the industry waits to see what autumn brings.

“A surge in prices is not anticipated, given the lack of restocker activity which often underpins large increases in the Indicator prices.

“Export markets are expected to remain strong into the foreseeable future as the impacts of US tariffs, combined with the country’s multi-decade low herd numbers, are being felt beyond their domestic market. Global market opportunities for Australian beef are expanding due to the ongoing shortfall in US supply,” said Kemp.

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