ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads: downhill

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads declined 2.1% m/m in May. In trend terms, the series declined 1.9% m/m. While ANZ-Indeed Job Ads has fallen 23.9% from its peak in November 2022, the series is still more than 20% above pre-pandemic levels. This release contains revisions to the data from February 2024 following the identification of a structural break in an input to the series.

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ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk: "The (revised) ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series shows a softening over 2024, with an 8.2% fall since the end of last year. Other data also show the labour market is cooling, but only gradually.

The latest labour force survey had employment up 71k over the three months to May, less than half the pace seen over the same period last year. While the unemployment and underemployment rates are up 0.5ppt and 0.8ppt respectively from this cycle’s lows, they have both lifted just 0.1ppt since December last year. Annual growth in hours worked has also slowed to just 0.6% y/y, well down from last May’s 5.2% y/y. The path of Job Ads suggests we’ll see a continued moderation in the labour market over the coming year."

Indeed Senior Economist, Callam Pickering: "In May, the decline in ANZ-Indeed Job Ads was relatively broad-based, with the largest subtractions coming from Victoria and Western Australia. The annual fall has been concentrated in New South Wales and Victoria, with more minor declines across the rest of Australia.

Accounting and construction Job Ads subtracted the most from national Job Ads in May, which offset some strength in education and for nurses. Overall, Job Ads are down in around 90% of occupational categories over the past year." 

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