ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads: five consecutive declines

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads declined 2.2% m/m in June. In trend terms, the series was down2.0% m/m. While ANZ-Indeed Job Ads has fallen 25.8% from its peak in June2022, the series is still 17.8% above pre-pandemic levels.

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ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk said: “The pace of declines in ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads has intensified, with the series down 7.1% q/q in Q2 compared to 3.0% q/q in Q1. Despite this continued moderation, the level of Job Ads is still well above pre-pandemic levels. We’re seeing a similar story in other parts of the labour market, with indicators easing from strong starting positions. So far, a lot of the adjustment in the labour market has been through hours worked. The hours-based underutilisation rate, which the RBA now considers when thinking about full employment, has risen from its low of 4.5% in Q4 2022 to 5.3% in Q22024. But with average hours worked per person back in line with the long-run trend, we think the pace of employment growth will slow from here. That said, we only expect a modest lift in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.”

Indeed Senior Economist, Callam Pickering said: “In June, the decline in ANZ-Indeed Job Ads was concentrated in Victoria and Western Australia, which offset some modest gains in New South Wales and Queensland. Overall, around 85% of the annual decline in Job Ads was driven by New South Wales and Victoria. Labour market conditions elsewhere are proving more resilient. Job Ads dropped in June on the back of lower demand for cleaners, tradies and food service workers. Over the past year though the decline in Job Ads has been relatively broad-based, with Job Ads down in 86% of occupational categories.”

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