Weight loss drugs and your menu: less is moreish?

The tradition of going for a 10km jog and then plonking down on the couch to eat a tub of ice cream and bag of chips is a well-worn one.

“With the growth of weight-loss drugs, a number of companies are already marketing new ranges of foods specifically designed to complement GLP-1 drugs.”

For those of us looking to maintain our weight, the balance between what we burn and what we put into our bodies has always been a fine balancing act.

The revolution in weight loss drugs is transforming not only weight loss approaches but also sectors such as food, beverage and agribusiness (FBA). 

Weight loss revolution in waiting?

By now, you’ve almost certainly heard about weight loss drugs – for example, Ozempic, Mounjaro or Zepbound.

Originally developed for combatting diabetes, these are now widely regarded as drugs for inducing weight loss.

While the hype for weight-loss drugs has been strong, the actual usage is still relatively low in terms of percentage of population.

It is estimated over 40 million Americans have tried a weight-loss drug, with about half this number continuing to take them.

A major factor cited for the drop-off of users has been the high price of the drugs. However, this could soon change.

In late November 2024, the US government proposed legislating to expand public healthcare coverage for weight-loss drugs, including Ozempic and similar GLP-1 medications.

If approved, this change could make these drugs affordable for millions more people by significantly reducing their cost, which currently exceeds US$1,000 per month.

The proposal redefines obesity as a chronic disease, making treatment a priority in public health policy.

While the plan still requires public consultation and approval by the incoming administration, it has the potential to greatly increase access and usage of these drugs.

While the current focus is on the US, the potential for a major increase in the usage of weight-loss drugs globally is immense.

According to the World Health Organisation, around 74 percent of Americans are overweight, with 42 percent being classified as obese.

The figures for Australia are only slightly less, with 66 percent of adults deemed overweight, and 32 percent obese.

Changing the menu?

Given the likelihood costs for weight-loss drugs will gradually decline and usage may increase in many countries — companies in the food, beverage and agribusiness (FBA) sectors are already evaluating the potential impacts of these drugs on them, as well as opportunities.

Examples of products which could be affected include high-sugar snacks, desserts, and ready-to-eat processed meals, which are popular for their high sugar and calorie content and could experience reduced sales as consumers opt for healthier alternatives.

It was a similar shift as a result of an historical trend towards low-carb diets which saw substantial declines in sugary drink sales and prompted Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Nestlé to launch sugar-free or reduced-sugar versions of their drinks and snacks.

During this time, Coca-Cola’s Diet Coke sales surged, and snack brands expanded low-carb offerings.

With the growth of weight-loss drugs, a number of companies are already marketing new ranges of foods specifically designed to complement GLP-1 drugs.

In the US, Nestlé has released a line of products called Vital Pursuit, featuring frozen, high-protein, portion-controlled meals targeting weight-loss drug users.

These products focus on nutrient density and include items like cauliflower crust pizzas and high-fibre chicken fajita melts, deliberately designed to help control appetite and promote a feeling of fullness.

In terms of marketing, Conagra is specifically highlighting its Healthy Choice meals as being portioned for lower-calorie diets, while Campbell’s soups and snacks emphasise easily digestible, nutrient-rich options to align with the dietary needs of weight-loss drug users

Slim pickings

Despite a major effect of the weight-loss drugs being to eliminate the feeling of cravings, which lead to snacks between meals, some manufacturers in the US of items such as biscuits and snacks have reported the impact on overall sales to be negligible.

Interestingly, according to a study published by analytics firm Grocery Doppio, individuals on Ozempic bought 47 percent fewer baked goods, 13 percent less processed foods and 28 percent fewer high-calorie beverages.

The study further revealed that 97 percent of consumers on weight-loss medication lowered their grocery spending by an average of 11 percent.

For retailers — particularly supermarkets — this potential scenario could require that they not only adapt to any reduction in the sales of particular items, but also capitalise on the evolving patterns in product purchases.

US supermarket chains are closely watching changes in trends which may see further growth in sales of fresh fruit and vegetables, and a dip in snack and “craving” items, including sugary drinks and confectionery.

Down on the farm

Upstream in the food supply chain, while there may be a reduction in certain geographies of the purchasing of processed foods, often high in products such as sugar and corn, these crops are unlikely to be affected, given their ongoing strong global demand.

In contrast, there could likely be increasing interest in low-calorie, nutrient dense produce, such as leafy greens and lean proteins.

This could see increased demand for spinach and kale, cruciferous vegetables such as broccoli and cauliflower, and legumes for plant-based protein sources, as well as berries and avocados, both rich in nutrients yet relatively low in calories.

In lean proteins, there could be a higher demand for poultry, fish, and eggs over red meats due to their perceived lower calorie density.

Look in the mirror

While weight loss drugs’ current impact on the food chain may be a small ripple, it’s one with the potential to swell.

For FBA companies worldwide, it’s not just about riding the wave but being ready to shift course, particularly given developments such as the ongoing US policy changes.

Like their US counterparts, FBA players globally should stay open to adapting product lines and strategies, meeting new consumer habits head-on — because in this slimming market, companies need to shed old habits and stay fit for the future.

Gerry Karam is Head of Food, Beverage & Agribusiness with ANZ Institutional