Stateometer: on the right track

While momentum was positive across much of the country the pace of growth remained below trend. 

"NSW, Tasmania, Western Australia and the Northern Territory all shifted from the left to right of the Stateometer grid.” 

Surprisingly, consumers were not the driver of the shift, despite the combination of lower interest rates and tax cuts throughout June and July. Every region except for the Australian Capital Territory recorded below-trend consumer components – some even lower than the previous quarter.

The business component showed improved momentum in resource-rich Western Australia and Queensland, likely reflecting improved performance in the mining sector. The housing component improved somewhat in New South Wales, Victoria and WA while continuing to show strength in Queensland.

Overall, the Stateometer showed NSW, Tasmania, Western Australia and the Northern Territory all shifted from the left to right of the Stateometer grid in the September quarter. South Australia and the ACT were the only regions to record above-trend growth.

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Capital

The Stateometer showed the ACT grew above trend and accelerated in the three months to September, while Queensland, WA, Tasmania, the NT and NSW all grew below trend - but accelerated.

NSW appears to have turned a corner, with positive results in housing and trade lifting momentum. There is considerable room for improvement, however, with the state’s economy still growing at a below trend rate as the consumer dragged.

South Australia grew at an above trend rate but decelerated. Victoria grew at a below trend rate and decelerated further.

Growth in Victoria remains below trend after relatively strong growth in 2018-19. Housing was a little less of a drag on the state’s economy in the quarter, as was trade. The labour component was still positive but less so than in the June quarter.

Cherelle Murphy is a Senior Economist at ANZ